Unemployment will peak at 2.8 million in 2010, according to the latest forecast from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.

The business group said unemployment would continue to rise for the first six months of the new year, despite the recovery in the UK economy.

The forecast is more optimistic than previous predictions.

Earlier this year the CIPD said it expected unemployment to peak at 3.2 million as a result of the recession.

The total number unemployed in the UK currently stands at 2.49 million - or 7.9% of the population - following hundreds of thousands of job losses in 2009.

A further 250,000 jobs will be lost in the UK before the second quarter of 2010, the CIPD said.

But improvements in the general economic outlook meant the jobs market was not expected to suffer as much as previously thought.

Pay squeeze

However those that remained in work were likely to see below-inflation pay rises, the CIPD added, with employers still intending to cut labour costs further.

While the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation is expected to reach 3% next year, pay rises are predicted to average 2%.

Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said that lower pay rises would be necessary to stop employers cutting further jobs and keep unemployment below three million.

"Our forecast implies a squeeze on real pay next year," he said.

"[But] a stronger earnings growth would threaten to raise peak unemployment to at least three million."

Unemployment could also rise higher if the UK economy failed to recover as expected, or the government imposed deeper spending cuts, Dr Philpott warned.

"If... there was a more immediate cut in public spending - which could be the case if the Conservatives gain power at the general election due in the first half of 2010 - unemployment might peak at a higher rate than we currently forecast," he said.

An end to rising unemployment will also depend on the continuing recovery of the UK economy.

Most economists expect the UK to exit recession in the early part of 2010, with the government predicting 1.25% growth over the year.